May 18 Political Primaries – What’s the Significance?

If you turn on your favorite cable news channel you’d probably think it was November.  No, it’s not November, but it is prime time forpolitical primaries across the states.  Primaries serve as an internal vote within political parties in states to choose their candidate for the general election (November 2, 2010).  While probably 80 percent or more of incumbent Members of Congress don’t face internal primary challenges, a small percentage do and they can get pretty nasty given it’s Democrat vs. Democrat and Republican vs. Republican.  In a number of these districts and/or states, the primary winner is in some cases the general election winner when the opposing party has no chance of winning.

 

Primaries on Tuesday, May 18th will offer a glimpse of what to expect in November.  Arkansas will decide the fate of a moderate Democrat, Kentucky will demonstrate the power of the tea party, and Pennsylvania will test the power of the Obama endorsement within Democratic primaries.

 

So what’s on tap for Tuesday’s primaries?

 

Arkansas: Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), a moderate Democrat faces a challenge from the Democratic left.  Her opponent?  Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter.  Halter complains Lincoln is too conservative and not “Democrat” enough because she voted against the final health care reform bill.  But Democrats in this part of the country are very different than Democrats in California.  Polls show Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln ahead.   Whoever wins the Democratic primary (or subsequent runoff) will face a strong Republican challenger in November.  The seat varies by prognosticators as a “Toss Up” or “Lean Republican.”

 

Kentucky: Tea partiers are heavily influencing the Republican primary to replace retiring Republican Senator Jim Bunning (R-KY).  Even the current senators themselves are split on their favorites.  Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson faces Tea Party favorite Rand Paul.  Paul is outpacing party favorite Grayson in the polls.  Democrats have their own primary to determine who will face Grayson or Paul in November.  But the seat remains in the “Lean Republican” column.

 

Pennsylvania: The Democratic Senate primary in Pennsylvania will have lots of tongues wagging give President Obama’s role in convincing incumbent (and former Republican ) Senator Arlen Specter to switch parties and run as a Democrat for re-election.  Specter has the support of Obama, Biden, and Democratic Pennsylvania governor Ed Rendell.  This didn’t sit too well with some Pennsylvania Democrats and Specter is receiving a hearty challenge from Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak (D-PA).  Sestak has surged in the polls recently and is ahead in at least a few polls.